If Only I Could Think Like This - July 7, 2005
As most of you know, I post online to an actuarial website. There is a group of poker players that have created a weekly game and we share stories, ask advice, etc. in the interest of improving our games. Well, there are four players among this group that are going to play in the WSOP main event.
One of these players is named Freeman. His real name is Zelong Dong and he finished 10th in Event 4 this year. (I think it was event 4: The $2000 Limit Hold Em Tourney). Anyway, the guy can play. He has just recently participated more on the forum and here is a hand that he breaks down. Pure Genious. If I tried this, I would take up all my time and still only finish half way through his thought process.
*********** # 238 **************PokerStars Game #2015437763: Tournament #9587560, Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level V (75/150) - 2005/07/02 - 01:09:10 (ET)Table '9587560 9' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: BIGBOPPER (4100 in chips)
Seat 3: freeman (3010 in chips)
Seat 6: chanukya (2495 in chips)
Seat 9: toddly34 (3895 in chips)
chanukya: posts small blind 75toddly34: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to freeman [5d 4d]
BIGBOPPER: folds
freeman: raises 300 to 450
chanukya: folds
toddly34: calls 300
*** FLOP *** [8d 3c 9s]
toddly34: bets 150freeman: raises 450 to 600toddly34: calls 450
*** TURN *** [8d 3c 9s] [2c]toddly34: checks freeman: checks
*** RIVER *** [8d 3c 9s 2c] [Qd]toddly34: bets 400freeman: raises 1560 to 1960 and is all-intoddly34: folds
freeman collected 2975 from potfreeman: shows [5d 4d] (high card Queen)
*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 2975
So how did he figure out the puzzle? Here is his explanation...
The clue is his his 400 bet on river. From my play on pre-flop and flop, he could put me on a big pair or two over cards, and the Q, which give his strght, very likely also helped me if I had AQ or KQ. So, If I were him and had JT, I would think this way:
"The goal for me now is to suck as much chips as possible. If he was bluffing and get nothing now, he will fold to any bet. but if I check, he very likely will bluff and gave me more chips. so, Check is good. But, if he has a big pair on river, what he is thinking now? he must be very cautious about this Q, but he has a very good hand, already 2100 in the pot, this is a key hand, so he must want to show down at a cheap price. so, I should bet the maximum amount that he would like to pay. With 2000 in the pot, I have 3000 and he has 2000 left, he will definitely call a 800 bet, but may fold a bet over 1000, therefore, I bet something like 900."
my thought was as follow on the river:
"he at least has a 9 or 8, or maybe JT. I have just 2000 left, the lowest stack now if give up this pot. But I think I am a better player, I still have good chance with 2000 stack. If he check on river, he may be either fold to a all-in or determined to call any bet I put. I don't know this guy well, I better just give up and work on my 2000 short stack. If he bet a over 800, he will be ready to call my all-in, no room to bluff, so I would fold too."
When I saw his 400 bet, I quickly went through above process and exclude JT. could he have two pairs? no. first, if he had before river, he unlikely would check it on turn; second, I could have JT, and now Q comes. If he has a hand better than Qx, his best move is a check, and ready to call a fair amount of bet. So, why he bet 400 while the pot already has 2000? he must have a piece of the board but want to show down cheaply. If he check, he worry I may bet an amount which he could not call. Doyle Brunson call this a defensive bet. He still have 2600 left, not pot committed, and not willing to die yet. therefore, I decide to move all-in. However, if I move too quick and show strength, he may think I am making a move and call me, so I paused about 20 seconds, pretending I have a decent hand and making a tough decision. Then I moved. He thought for a while, must feel a 9 or 8 not good enough.
Different people may explain a move differently, experience is important. Also, more complicated thinking may not necesaarily better. If you are playing crazy gambler, your complicated thinking simplly is irrelavant. It is important to put opponant on a level he could think the game at, and figure out what really he is thinking about.
**************
If you all are interested, I'll post his WSOP journal experience from event 4.
One of these players is named Freeman. His real name is Zelong Dong and he finished 10th in Event 4 this year. (I think it was event 4: The $2000 Limit Hold Em Tourney). Anyway, the guy can play. He has just recently participated more on the forum and here is a hand that he breaks down. Pure Genious. If I tried this, I would take up all my time and still only finish half way through his thought process.
*********** # 238 **************PokerStars Game #2015437763: Tournament #9587560, Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level V (75/150) - 2005/07/02 - 01:09:10 (ET)Table '9587560 9' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: BIGBOPPER (4100 in chips)
Seat 3: freeman (3010 in chips)
Seat 6: chanukya (2495 in chips)
Seat 9: toddly34 (3895 in chips)
chanukya: posts small blind 75toddly34: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to freeman [5d 4d]
BIGBOPPER: folds
freeman: raises 300 to 450
chanukya: folds
toddly34: calls 300
*** FLOP *** [8d 3c 9s]
toddly34: bets 150freeman: raises 450 to 600toddly34: calls 450
*** TURN *** [8d 3c 9s] [2c]toddly34: checks freeman: checks
*** RIVER *** [8d 3c 9s 2c] [Qd]toddly34: bets 400freeman: raises 1560 to 1960 and is all-intoddly34: folds
freeman collected 2975 from potfreeman: shows [5d 4d] (high card Queen)
*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 2975
So how did he figure out the puzzle? Here is his explanation...
The clue is his his 400 bet on river. From my play on pre-flop and flop, he could put me on a big pair or two over cards, and the Q, which give his strght, very likely also helped me if I had AQ or KQ. So, If I were him and had JT, I would think this way:
"The goal for me now is to suck as much chips as possible. If he was bluffing and get nothing now, he will fold to any bet. but if I check, he very likely will bluff and gave me more chips. so, Check is good. But, if he has a big pair on river, what he is thinking now? he must be very cautious about this Q, but he has a very good hand, already 2100 in the pot, this is a key hand, so he must want to show down at a cheap price. so, I should bet the maximum amount that he would like to pay. With 2000 in the pot, I have 3000 and he has 2000 left, he will definitely call a 800 bet, but may fold a bet over 1000, therefore, I bet something like 900."
my thought was as follow on the river:
"he at least has a 9 or 8, or maybe JT. I have just 2000 left, the lowest stack now if give up this pot. But I think I am a better player, I still have good chance with 2000 stack. If he check on river, he may be either fold to a all-in or determined to call any bet I put. I don't know this guy well, I better just give up and work on my 2000 short stack. If he bet a over 800, he will be ready to call my all-in, no room to bluff, so I would fold too."
When I saw his 400 bet, I quickly went through above process and exclude JT. could he have two pairs? no. first, if he had before river, he unlikely would check it on turn; second, I could have JT, and now Q comes. If he has a hand better than Qx, his best move is a check, and ready to call a fair amount of bet. So, why he bet 400 while the pot already has 2000? he must have a piece of the board but want to show down cheaply. If he check, he worry I may bet an amount which he could not call. Doyle Brunson call this a defensive bet. He still have 2600 left, not pot committed, and not willing to die yet. therefore, I decide to move all-in. However, if I move too quick and show strength, he may think I am making a move and call me, so I paused about 20 seconds, pretending I have a decent hand and making a tough decision. Then I moved. He thought for a while, must feel a 9 or 8 not good enough.
Different people may explain a move differently, experience is important. Also, more complicated thinking may not necesaarily better. If you are playing crazy gambler, your complicated thinking simplly is irrelavant. It is important to put opponant on a level he could think the game at, and figure out what really he is thinking about.
**************
If you all are interested, I'll post his WSOP journal experience from event 4.
posted by Steve K at 8:46 AM
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